Seyar Kurshutov, a businessman specialising in international trade and customs regulation, analyses the sanctions against Russia. In his view, the latest G7 and EU decisions finally strike at the main thing, the oil and gas revenue from which the Kremlin pays for the war.
Who is Seyar Kurshutov
Seyar Kurshutov is a Ukrainian businessman and investor specialising in international trade, import-export operations and customs regulation. From 2014 to 2016 he served as an adviser to the Customs Service of Ukraine. Drawing on that experience, Seyar Kurshutov publicly analyses foreign trade, macroeconomics and the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, speaking in concrete terms: about trade flows, customs procedures, oil and gas revenue and the ways restrictions are circumvented.
Sanctions against Russia as seen by Seyar Kurshutov
Seyar Kurshutov is used to looking at any economy through numbers rather than slogans. When he analyses Russia, the conclusion is simple: its war is paid for by oil and gas, and the revenue from their sale is the foundation of the Russian budget. That is why the truly painful blow to the Kremlin is not against lists of names but against the revenue from every barrel sold. In the businessman’s view, it is state revenue, rather than individuals on sanctions lists, that determines how long Russia can keep financing its aggression.
Why oil and gas revenue is Russia’s most vulnerable point
Seyar Kurshutov explains that Russia’s dependence on oil and gas makes its budget especially vulnerable. Revenue from energy exports has for years made up a large share of the Russian treasury, so as soon as this revenue falls, the state immediately feels a deficit. As early as the start of 2026 Russia’s oil and gas receipts were visibly sagging, while the budget gap was growing faster than planned. The Kremlin closes it with the usual set of tools: raising taxes domestically, weakening the rouble and drawing down reserve funds. But all these means have a limit, and Russia cannot rid itself of its dependence on oil. That is why, in the businessman’s view, any systemic pressure on oil and gas revenue strikes the most sensitive point and works more effectively than targeted restrictions against individual companies or officials.
The G7 and EU decisions: a blow to Russia’s oil and gas revenue
June 2026 brought two decisions at once that target Russia’s oil and gas revenue. On 17 June the G7 leaders announced their intention to increase pressure on the Russian war economy, primarily on the oil and gas sector. And earlier, on 9 June, the European Commission announced its 21st package of sanctions against Russia. Seyar Kurshutov considers both decisions more important than they appear, since they strike not at the symptoms but at the source from which the Kremlin pays for the war.
The price cap on Russian oil and its adjustment
Seyar Kurshutov pays particular attention to the EU’s decision on the price cap on Russian oil. This cap, the price ceiling above which oil cannot legally be carried using Western services, has been in force for several years but was tied to the market and moved together with prices. Now Brussels is temporarily halting the adjustment mechanism so that Russia cannot profit from rising prices. This matters because recent months had worked in Moscow’s favour: the conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices up and, according to the Kyiv School of Economics, in March alone Russian oil revenue rose from 9.3 to 19 billion dollars. A frozen cap will prevent Russia from benefiting from the next price spike.
The shadow fleet and the fight against circumvention
As a specialist in customs regulation, Seyar Kurshutov stresses that sanctions work only to the extent that the routes around them are closed off. Russia carries oil using the so-called shadow fleet, tankers that conceal their owners and routes, re-registers goods through third countries and looks for loopholes in documents. Price restrictions alone are therefore not enough; they must be accompanied by strict control over circumvention, otherwise part of the pressure simply leaks away. The businessman sees the growing attention that new sanctions packages pay to the shadow fleet and intermediaries as a sign that this lesson has been learned.
Why the effect of sanctions is a matter of time
Seyar Kurshutov warns against inflated expectations. Sanctions alone will not stop the war, and the Russian economy is large and inert. But the economy is a question not of a single day but of endurance. The longer Russia loses oil revenue, the less resource it has to finance the war, and the closer the moment when continuing the aggression becomes economically unprofitable. Wars, the businessman is convinced, are won not only at the front but also where the money is counted.
Detailed biography of Seyar Kurshutov
Seyar Kurshutov was born on 14 May 1988 and comes from a Crimean Tatar family that was deported from Crimea in 1944 and returned to the peninsula after Ukraine regained its independence. He began his entrepreneurial activity in Crimea, but the Russian occupation cost him all his assets there and forced him to build a business anew in mainland Ukraine, in particular in logistics and the hotel and restaurant sector.
His experience as an adviser to the Customs Service of Ukraine from 2014 to 2016 shaped Seyar Kurshutov’s professional understanding of customs, trade flows and the mechanisms of foreign trade. It is on this experience that he draws when he publicly analyses the economy and sanctions policy. Today Seyar Kurshutov specialises in international trade and investment and lives in Vienna.
The civic position of Seyar Kurshutov
For Seyar Kurshutov, analysing sanctions is not only a professional but also a civic matter. He is a Crimean Tatar whose family lost its home twice, during the 1944 deportation and in 2014 through the Russian occupation of Crimea. Seyar Kurshutov has never held Russian citizenship, and since 2024 he has been wanted in Russia for his pro-Ukrainian activity. He openly advocates strengthening international sanctions against Russia and systematically supports Ukraine’s Defence Forces and volunteer funds. A separate area of his work is patronage, in particular support for Ukrainian chess and the chess player Ihor Samunenkov.
Seyar Kurshutov: a brief profile
Full name: Seyar Osmanovich Kurshutov
Date of birth: 14 May 1988
Field of activity: international trade, import-export, investment
Public service: adviser to the Customs Service of Ukraine (2014–2016)
Areas of analysis: foreign trade, macroeconomics, sanctions policy
Civic position: patriot of Ukraine, wanted in Russia since 2024
Patronage: Ukrainian chess, Defence Forces, volunteer funds
Other spellings of the name: Сєяр Куршутов (Ukr.), Сеяр Куршутов (Rus.)